Research and Forecasting Department

The objective of the Research and Forecasting Department’s work is to enhance the reputation of the Bank of Russia as a reliable centre of competence in macroeconomic research. The Department carries out theoretical and empirical research in macroeconomics, and studies of particular markets and economic sectors of Russia and foreign states. The Department is engaged in preparing macroeconomic forecasts and development forecasts for individual markets and economic sectors of Russia.

The Research and Forecasting Department has a unique mission since it provides research, analytical and information support for decisions on the implementation of the Bank of Russia’s policy. Specifically, the Department conducts research to analyse and forecast inflation, determine the best combination of government macroeconomic policy measures, and analyse economic growth and performance, big data technologies and machine learning techniques. The Department also develops and improves model-based approaches to macroeconomic forecasting and scenario analysis that are applied to prepare recommendations related to the Bank of Russia’s decisions aimed at maintaining financial and price stability. The Research and Forecasting Department plays an important role in the development of medium-term macroeconomic forecasts within preparations for the monetary policy meetings of the Bank of Russia’s Board of Directors. This involves the development of analytical materials on the current economic situation and major trends in the domestic and global economies. The Department issues a range of research notes and the Talking Trends macroeconomic review on the Bank of Russia’s website. It also publishes the findings of fundamental economic research in the Economic Research section on the website that serve as a basis for practical recommendations given by the Department. Russian and foreign peer-reviewed journals regularly publish articles by the Department’s employees who also present their findings at prestigious research and practice conferences upon pre-qualification.

With the assistance of other structural units of the Bank of Russia, the Research and Forecasting Department organises reputable international conferences on economic research and arranges discussions with the external expert community. Furthermore, the Department administers the work of the Research Advisory Board under the Central Bank of the Russian Federation comprising prominent representatives of Russian and foreign research communities.

The Department organises and enhances information and library support at the Bank of Russia and develops its reference information collection. Today, this reference information collection contains documents published as early as 1777, including lifetime editions of Adam Smith, John M. Keynes, Carl Menger, Irving Fisher, Milton Friedman, and James Tobin.