Financial Stability Review

Small and medium-sized enterprises’ creditworthiness has worsened as this segment is the most sensitive to the economic slowdown and growth in the debt burden. Nevertheless, despite an increase in the proportion of loans of IV–V quality categories to 7.6%, it is still much smaller than after the 2014–2015 crisis (24%), and therefore, the SME segment involves no systemic risks to the banking sector.

Large and medium-sized businesses’ solvency remains adequate, with the percentage of ‘green zone’ loans (without signs of impairment) staying nearly unchanged (71% of the portfolio as of 1 October 2025 and 69% as of 1 April 2026). When needed, banks restructure loans to borrowers: in December 2025 and March 2026, there were spikes in the amounts of restructured loans, but their level remains stable overall. The Bank of Russia takes measures encouraging banks to create adequate provisions covering loans issued to borrowers persistently struggling to service their debts. Banks have sufficient capital to cover possible losses on corporate loans and continue lending to the economy.

Corporate lending is expanding at a balanced pace. Over October 2025–March 2026, the growth rate of lending, including banks’ investment in bonds, equalled 5.7%. Highly leveraged large companies continue to demonstrate accelerated debt growth: over that period, their outstanding debt to banks was up by 7.6%. To reduce the risks of over-indebtedness of large enterprises, from 1 March 2026, the Bank of Russia raised the macroprudential add-on applicable to the increase in claims on such companies by 60 pp to 100%. Owing to this add-on, over the past 12 months, banks accumulated a macroprudential capital buffer totalling ₽63 billion.

Over October 2024–March 2026, households’ debt on unsecured consumer loans decreased by 6%, while the retail portfolio as a whole continued to expand at a balanced pace, driven by mortgage and car lending. Individuals’ incomes were growing even faster, and as a result, households’ debt burden at the macrolevel was declining for the fifth consecutive quarter: people used 9.1% of disposable incomes to service loans as of 1 January 2026 (vs 9.4% as of 1 October 2025).

The percentage of non-performing loans in the unsecured consumer loan portfolio stabilised at 13.1% as of 1 April 2026 (+0.2 pp over the past six months). Banks were still facing an increased level of overdue loans issued to risky borrowers over 2023–2024, but the problem was not as serious as it could have been without the macroprudential limits set for loans to households with high debt service-to-income ratios (DSTI). At the same time, the quality of debt servicing of new unsecured consumer loans improved: the share of loans that became overdue for more than 30 days after three months on book (MOB) declined to 2.0% for loans issued in January 2026 (vs 2.8% for loans issued in January 2025).

It cannot be ruled out that there may be an increase in consumer loan arrears amid the economic slowdown, but this will not become a threat to banks. The banking sector’s safety buffer accumulated owing to the Bank of Russia’s measures remains substantial. As of 1 April 2026, macroprudential capital buffer for consumer loans amounted to 8.3% of the portfolio of loans, for car loans – 2.5%, and for mortgages – 1.4%. The Bank of Russia may release the macroprudential capital buffer if growth in credit losses limits banks’ capability to continue lending to the economy.

The situation in the housing market remains stable. Over 2025, the sales of apartments in buildings under construction reached 25.7 million sq m, which is 2% more than a year before. In 2026 Q1, sales remained at a high level of 5.6 million sq m (+12% YoY), which accelerated the rise in primary housing market prices. According to Rosstat, primary housing market prices increased by 3.9% over 2026 Q1, after similar high growth rates in 2025 Q4 (+3.4%). The ratio of debt coverage with the funds in escrow accounts stabilised at 68–70%. However, instalment plans still account for a considerable proportion in housing sales, which involves risks to buyers, banks, and developers. As of 1 April 2026, households’ total liabilities under instalment plans reached ₽1.5 trillion, or 17% of the value of signed shared construction participation agreements.

In 2025–2026 Q1, the average percentage of sold housing under construction remained at 31–32%, which is just 2 pp below the level of 2023–2024. Oversupply is recorded in a number of regions where the situation will gradually stabilise as well. The area of new housing projects launched over January–April 2026 totalled 13.9 million sq m (+18% YoY), which is also a sign of stabilisation in the market. These projects will meet the demand for new housing under construction in the medium term and limit price growth. The problems of individual developers are not systemic, and the majority of the largest companies in the industry remained profitable as of the end of the year.

Over 2025 Q4–2026 Q1, the repayment performance of mortgages worsened somewhat, while staying at an acceptable level: the proportion of non-performing loans edged up by 0.6 pp to equal 1.8% as of 1 April 2026. That rise was primarily associated with the maturity of mortgages granted for single-family home construction, loans issued over the period of soaring demand for loans under the non-targeted Subsidised Mortgage programme, as well as market-based mortgages issued at high interest rates. The share of NPL 90+ in the portfolio of single-family home construction mortgages reached 4.6%, which is five times higher than in the portfolio of mortgages for apartments (0.9%). That was because single-family home contractors frequently failed to perform their obligations. To protect households in the single-family home construction segment, from 1 March 2025, the use of escrow accounts became mandatory for the majority of government subsidised lending programmes. Additionally, from 1 October 2025, the Bank of Russia introduced macroprudential limits for mortgages for single-family home construction issued to borrowers with high DSTI. Furthermore, the Bank of Russia plans to update the loan loss provisioning regulation taking into account heightened risks related to single-family home construction without using escrow accounts.

Over the period under review, banks’ reinvestment of profit allowed the sector to increase its capital adequacy ratio by 1.0 pp from 12.9% to 13.9% as of 1 April 2026. As a result, banks’ capital expanded to 4.4 pp of N1.0 relative to the minimum value of the regulatory capital including surcharges (+0.2 pp), despite the scheduled rise in the capital surcharges by 0.75 pp for systemically important banks (SIBs) and 0.5 pp for other banks from 1 January 2026. Banks’ additional capital in the form of the accumulated macroprudential buffer (₽1.3 trillion) accounted for 0.9 pp of N1.0. Planned restoration of surcharges to capital adequacy ratio is aimed at increasing resilience of banks.

The situation with liquidity at SIBs remained stable. As of 1 April 2026, SIBs’ national liquidity coverage ratio equalled 117%. Banks did not record elevated volatility in liabilities and maintained their liquid assets at an adequate level.

Insurers’ and non-governmental pension funds’ financial resilience remains at a high level. High interest income and positive revaluation of assets enabled insurers to offset the reduction in insurance income and losses from foreign currency revaluation of assets. Owing to the same factors, non-governmental pension funds ensured growth in returns on invested pension savings and pension reserves.

Leasing companies are still facing a decrease in the portfolio and a rise in problem debts, since their business is concentrated on segments that are the most sensitive to the economic slowdown, namely SMEs. Nevertheless, the leasing industry is recording a deceleration in negative trends, with new transactions increasing and the stocks of unsold seized assets declining.