In the quarterly Monetary Policy Report, the Bank of Russia presents its vision and assessment of the current economic situation and publishes the macroeconomic forecast underlying its key rate decisions.
Stable components of inflation exceeded 4% in annualised terms
The recovery phase of the economic growth is coming to an end
Lending activity remains high
Tighter monetary policy is needed to curb the extent of inflation deviation from the target
The Bank of Russia will determine the key rate path to bring inflation back to 4% in 2024 and sustainably anchor it there
Inflation is accelerating
After the period of moderate price growth in recent months, inflation has accelerated. Current price growth rates, including stable indicators, exceeded 4% in annualised terms. Annual inflation is also increasing. More appreciable inflationary pressures signal that growth in both government and consumer demand starts to outpace the economy’s capacity to expand output. Given the monetary policy pursued, annual inflation will come in at
Inflation, inflation expectations and Bank of Russia key rate
The recovery phase of the economic growth is coming to an end
The economy has in general completed its recovery after the slump in activity in the spring of 2022. The exceptions are certain sectors facing serious constraints in their export activities. A faster-than-expected recovery is associated with a more robust domestic demand (public and private, including consumer one). Taking into consideration new data on the changes in economic activity in the baseline scenario, the Bank of Russia forecasts that the GDP growth rate will be
Expanding domestic demand also means higher demand for imports. Declining exports, coupled with growing imports, were the key factor underlying the ruble weakening since the beginning of 2023.
Key forecast parameters
Growth, % YoY, unless indicated otherwise
| 2022 (actual) |
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation, % change, Dec on Dec | 11.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | |
| Gross domestic product | −2.1 | 1.5–2.5 | |||
| % change, Q4 on Q4 of the previous year | −2.7 | 1.0–2.0 | |||
| Household final consumption expenditure | −1.4 | ||||
| Gross fixed capital formation | 3.3 | 2.0–5.0 | 0.0–3.0 | ||
| Banking system’s claims on the economy in rubles and foreign currency, including: | 12.0 | ||||
| on businesses | 13.2 | ||||
| on households. including: | 9.4 | ||||
| housing mortgage loans | 17.6 |
Monetary conditions continued to ease
Nominal interest rates increased in certain segments of the financial market, including the OFZ market. Concurrently, the lending activity remained high in both corporate and retail segments. Mortgage lending accelerated due to both subsidised and market-based loans. High growth rates were also observed in unsecured consumer lending during the past months. Considering these trends, in the revised forecast that took into account a monetary policy tightening, the Bank of Russia raised its estimate of credit to the economy for 2023 to
OFZ yields and Bank of Russia key rate, % p.a.
* Maximum ruble deposit rate in the top ten banks.
Monetary policy will limit the extent of inflation deviation from the target and be aimed at returning it to 4% by the end of 2024
Bank of Russia annual key rate, % per annum
