Estimate of Key Aggregates of the Balance of Payments of the Russian Federation

The essentials:

The Bank of Russia published the estimate of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation for July 2025 and revised the estimate for January – June 2025 due to the receipt of additional reporting data as of 15 September, 2025.

The current account surplus in July 2025 amounted to $1.7 billion against $0.3 billion deficit in June 2025, which was caused by an increase in the trade balance surplus.

In January-July 2025 the current account surplus reduced to $25.1 billion from $41.5 billion in the corresponding period of 2024 primarily due to a weaker trade balance.

Key Aggregates in July 2025:

• the trade balance surplus amounted to $13.2 billion, increasing by $3.9 billion relative to the updated value of June 2025, the main cause was the more significant growth in exports of goods compared to imports;
• the deficit in the balance on services increased to $5.5 billion due to the outstripping growth in imports of services compared to exports, caused by the rise in Russians' spending during foreign trips;
• the total deficit in primary and secondary income expanded to $6.0 billion ($4.8 billion a month earlier): the main contribution was made by the seasonal increase in the amounts of dividends payable to non-residents by private sector;
• external assets (excluding reserve assets) grew by $4.7 billion ($0.8 billion a month earlier) mainly due to other investment;
• external liabilities rose by $1.9 billion (dropped by $0.4 billion in June 2025) owing to the other investment inflows in the private sector;
• reserve assets declined by $1.3 billion (by $0.8 billion in June 2025).

Key Aggregates in January – July 2025:

• the trade balance surplus decreased to $70.7 billion from $81.1 billion in January-July 2024 as a result of both reduced exports and increased imports;
• the deficit in the balance on services expanded to $26.1 billion from $20.2 billion in January-July 2024 owing to the significant increase in imports of services, including travel and other services, with slight export growth;
• the deficit in primary and secondary income amounted to $19.4 billion remaining virtually unchanged versus the corresponding period of the previous year;
• the slowdown in the growth of external assets (excluding reserve assets) to $29.6 billion from $42.8 billion a year earlier is, among other things, caused by the decline of non-residents’ indebtedness on outstanding settlements;
• external liabilities grew to $4.6 billion ($3.9 billion in January-July 2024) due to, among other things, the direct investment;
• reserve assets decreased by $10.6 billion (by $8.8 billion a year earlier).