Estimate of Key Aggregates of the Balance of Payments of the Russian Federation

The essentials:

The Bank of Russia published the first estimate of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation in November 2024 and revised the estimate for July – October 2024 due to the receipt of additional reporting data as of December 12, 2024.

The current account balance in November 2024 amounted to $3.2 billion, having decreased by $1.6 billion compared to the revised figure for October 2024 due to a decline in trade balance surplus.

In January – November 2024, the current account surplus grew to $57.4 billion ($49.5 billion a year earlier). The key driver was an increase in the trade balance surplus.

Key Aggregates in details in November 2024:

• the trade balance surplus declined to $6.3 billion compared to the revised figure in October 2024 due to a more significant drop in exports of goods than in imports;
• the deficit in the balance on services reduced by $0.7 billion to $2.1 billion due to a drop in Russians’ spendings during foreign trips;
• the total deficit in the balance on primary and secondary income decreased by $0.5 billion to $1.1 billion, which was associated with a decrease in investment income accrued in favor of non-residents;
• foreign assets (excluding reserve assets) grew by $5.8 (by $4.9 billion a month earlier) primarily due to other investment partially related to an increase in lags in settlements for foreign economic activities;
• external liabilities rose by $5.3 billion (by $1.6 billion a month earlier) due to a growth in other investment, as well as in direct investment related to accrual of reinvested earnings in Russian companies;
• reserve assets grew by $0.8 billion (by $1.9 billion a month earlier), among other things, due to a decline in the limit on swap transactions.

Key Aggregates in January – November 2024:

• the trade balance surplus grew to $118.6 billion against $110.7 billion in January – November 2023 due to the decline in imports. The estimate of the trade balance in October and Q3 2024 was decreased taking into account the received reporting data from the Federal Customs Service;
• the deficit in the balance on services increased by $3.2 billion to $34.3 billion primarily as a result of the growth in imports of travel services and other services;
• the deficit in the balance on primary and secondary income decreased by $3.2 billion to $26.9 billion mainly due to a decline in transfers payable;
• foreign assets (excluding reserve assets) grew by $58.8 billion (by $43.2 billion a year earlier) mostly due to the growth in other investment;
• external liabilities reduced by $10.6 billion ($6.3 billion in January – November 2023), among other things, as a result of redemption of liabilities on raised loans, in particular within the framework of direct investment relationships;
• international reserves declined by $8.7 billion mainly as a result of transactions with the funds of the National Wealth Fund and transactions to regulate foreign exchange currency liquidity based on currency swap transactions.