Estimate of Key Aggregates of the Balance of Payments of the Russian Federation

The essentials:

The Bank of Russia published the first estimate of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation in February 2025 and revised the estimate for October – December 2024 and January 2025 due to the receipt of additional reporting data and customs statistics.

The current account balance in February 2025 amounted to $7.9 billion against $2.9 billion in January 2025. The increase in the current account surplus compared to January 2025 was mainly driven by the strengthening of the trade balance owing to a rise in the value of exports of goods amid a decline in imports.

Key Aggregates in details in February 2025:

• the trade balance surplus rose by $4,2 billion compared to the revised figure in January 2025 due to an increase in exports to $31,3 billion from $29.2 billion, while imports fell by $2.2 billion to $19.9 billion;
• the deficit in the balance on services reduced by $1.1 billion to $1.7 billion due to the drop in Russians’ spendings during foreign trips after the seasonal growth in January 2025;
• the total deficit in the balance on primary and secondary income has not changed significantly and amounted to $1.7 billion;
• almost the entire volume of net lending was in the form of expansion of external assets (excluding reserve assets) by $5.6 billion (by $6.5 billion a month earlier), mainly in the form of other investment;
• external liabilities of the economy were stable after the rise by $3.0 billion in January 2025;
• reserve assets decreased by $1.5 billion (by $3.0 billion in January 2025).

Key Aggregates in January – February 2025:

• the trade balance surplus grew by $2,5 billion to $18.5 billion compared to the corresponding period of the previous year mainly due to the decline in imports; the estimate in January was revised upwards for exports, while for imports it was revised downwards due to the receipt of reporting data;
• the deficit in the balance on services was close to the last year's figure and accounted for $4.5 billion versus $4.7 billion in January-February 2024;
• the deficit in the balance on primary and secondary income increased to $3.2 billion ($2.7 billion a year earlier);
• external assets (excluding reserve assets) grew by $12.1 billion (by $8.0 billion a year earlier) mostly due to the growth in other investment;
• external liabilities of the economy rose by $2.8 billion against a $2.6 billion drop in January-February 2024 due to an increase in direct investment;
• international reserves declined by $4.4 billion (by $2.9 billion a year earlier).

Key Aggregates in Q4 2024:

• the estimate of the current account balance in Q4 2024 compared to the previous estimate has been revised towards an increase in the surplus by $10.4 billion to $14.9 billion;
• foreign trade surplus accounted for $32.0 billion ($20.4 billion in the previous estimate): exports of goods rose to $116.2 billion ($99.6 billion in the previous estimate) while imports expanded less significantly to $84.2 billion ($79.2 billion in the previous estimate) in 2024 Q4 according to the received reporting data of the FCS of Russia;
• external assets (excluding reserve assets) rose by $18.1 billion ($3.0 billion in the previous estimate) due to an increase in other investment;
• external liabilities grew by $10.3 billion ($6.2 billion in the previous estimate) due to changes in other investment in Q4 2024.