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plans as compared to the current exchange
rate. Therefore, in the absence of any significant external shocks, exchange rate
movements should not entail any substantial
132
18.11.2025
plans as compared to the current exchange rate. Therefore, in the absence of any significant external shocks, exchange rate movements should not entail any substantial
133
24.10.2025
case of escalating trade disputes may have proinflationary effects through the ruble exchange rate dynamics. Geopolitical tensions remain a significant uncertainty factor. Disinflationary risks involve
pose any serious risks to
price dynamics, as current levels of the exchange rate are at the lower bound
of the range of its changes
135
07.10.2025
pose any serious risks to price dynamics, as current levels of the exchange rate are at the lower bound of the range of its changes
136
12.09.2025
case of escalating trade disputes may have proinflationary effects through the ruble exchange rate dynamics. Geopolitical tensions remain a significant uncertainty factor. Disinflationary risks involve
the surge in autumn 2024, had a limited
impact on the ruble exchange rate.
Summary of the Key Rate Discussion
9
INFLATION RISKS
The discussants
138
18.08.2025
the surge in autumn 2024, had a limited impact on the ruble exchange rate.
Inflation risks
The discussants shared the opinion that the balance of
420) (432) (439) (448)
(billions of US dollars per year)
USD / RUB exchange rate
78,4 86,6 92,7 95,8
(RUB per USD,
140
15.07.2026
This is 19% ($73 billion) higher than imports in 2021.
• USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts expect a slightly weaker ruble (by 0.3–0.5