Macroeconomic survey
of the Bank of Russia

¹ In parentheses are the results of the September 2026 survey.
² Russian oil price used for tax purposes and published monthly on the official website of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.
³ The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the key rate (average for the year) and CPI (Dec to Dec).
⁴ The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the nominal wages and average for the year CPI.
Survey Dates: 9 – 13 October, 2026.
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 32 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.

The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years (see the shaded areas in the charts) have narrowed for most indicators.

• Inflation: Analysts have raised their forecast for 2026–2028 to 7.1% (+0.5 pp compared to the September survey), 5.0% (+0.4 pp) and 4.2% (+0.2 pp) respectively. Analysts expect that inflation will return to the target in 2029.
• Key rate: Forecasts have been raised over the entire horizon: to 14.6% per annum (+0.1 pp) in 2026 (this implies that the key rate will average 14.0% per annum for the remainder of 2026), 12.8% per annum (+0.4 pp) in 2027 and 10.8% per annum (+0.8 pp) in 2028. The median estimate of the neutral key rate has also been raised by 0.5 pp to 8.5% per annum. The forecast for the end of the horizon (9.2% per annum, +0.6 pp) remains above it. Real key rate calculated based on analysts’ forecasts is 7.4% (-0.5 pp) in 2026, 7.8% (+0.2 pp) in 2027, 6.4% (+0.6 pp) in 2028 and 5.1% (+0.6 pp) in 2029.
• GDP: Growth forecasts are almost unchanged: 0.6% (+0.1 pp) in 2026, 1.2% in 2027, 1.6% (-0.1 pp) in 2028 and 1.8% in 2029. The median estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate has been lowered by 0.1 pp to 1.7%. According to analysts, the accumulated GDP growth from 2021 to 2029 will total +14.6% (1.8% per year on average).
• Unemployment rate: No significant changes. Analysts expect the average unemployment rate to be 2.2% in 2026 and to rise to 2.5% in 2027, 2.6% (-0.1 pp) in 2028 and 2.7% (-0.1 pp) in 2029, remaining significantly below the 2021 (4.8%) and 2023 (3.2%) figures.
• Nominal wages: Analysts have lowered their forecast for nominal wage growth for 2028–2029. They expect nominal wage growth to slow down to 10.5% (+0.1 pp) in 2026, 7.5% in 2027, 6.6% (-0.4 pp) in 2028 and 6.3% (-0.2 pp) in 2029. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average inflation suggest that real wages will increase by 4.0% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, 2.1% in 2028 and 2.0% in 2029. By the end of the forecast horizon, real wages will be 38.7% higher than in 2021 (4.8% per year on average).
• Consolidated budget balance: Analysts expect higher consolidated budget deficit over the entire horizon: 3.7% of GDP (up by 0.2 pp) in 2026, 3.0% of GDP (up by 0.4 pp) in 2027, 2.2% of GDP (up by 0.1 pp) in 2028 and 2.0% of GDP (up by 0.6 pp) in 2029.
• Exports of goods and services: Analysts have slightly raised their forecasts to $519 billion (+$11 billion) in 2026, $495 billion (+$9 billion) in 2027 and $500 billion (+$5 billion) in 2028. The forecast for 2029 equals $509 billion (+$8 billion). This is 7% ($40 billion) lower than exports in 2021.
• Imports of goods and services: Forecasts have also been raised over the entire horizon to $436 billion (+$6 billion) in 2026, $443 billion (+$7 billion) in 2027 and $456 billion (+$10 billion) in 2028. The forecast for 2029 equals $468 billion (+$11 billion). This is 24% ($91 billion) higher than imports in 2021.
• USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts expect a slightly weaker ruble (by 0.1–0.8%) in 2026–2028 compared to the September survey. The forecast of the average exchange rate is 80.0 rubles per dollar in 2026 (this implies that the exchange rate will average 85.3 rubles per dollar in October–December 2026), 89.4 rubles per dollar in 2027, 94.8 rubles per dollar in 2028 and 96.4 rubles per dollar in 2029.
• Oil price for tax purposes: Forecasts for 2026–2028 have been raised. Analysts expect that oil price will be $70 per barrel in 2026 (this implies that the oil price will average $71 per barrel for the remainder of 2026), decrease to $59 per barrel in 2027 and $56–57 per barrel by the end of the forecast horizon.