Balance of payments, international investment position and external debt of the Russian Federation in the 4d quarter of 2024
The Bank of Russia published the balance of payments, international investment position and the external debt of the Russian Federation in Q4 2024 and revised indicators of Q1 – Q3 2024 due to accounting of additional reporting data as of March 28, 2024.
Balance of payments of the Russian Federation
Balance of payments of the Russian Federation, in billions of US dollars
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Key Aggregates |
2023 | Year | 2024 | Year | ||||||
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
|||
|
Current account |
14,7 | 7,6 | 15,3 | 11,8 | 49,4 | 23,9 | 17,1 | 7,8 | 13,5 | 62,3 |
|
Trade balance |
29,6 | 26,3 | 33,4 | 32,3 | 121,7 | 34,8 | 35,7 | 30,8 | 31,6 | 133,0 |
|
Balance on services |
-7,7 | -9,0 | -10,6 | -8,8 | -36,1 | -7,4 | -9,3 | -12,4 | -9,9 | -39,1 |
|
Balance on primary and secondary income |
-7,2 | -9,6 | -7,5 | -11,7 | -36,1 | -3,5 | -9,2 | -10,6 | -8,2 | -31,5 |
|
Balance on financial account |
12,2 | 4,7 | 12,1 | 9,7 | 38,7 | 22,2 | 9,7 | 6,0 | 15,2 | 53,0 |
|
Net acquisition of financial assets, excluding reserve assets |
5,6 | 11,0 | 22,6 | 2,2 | 41,4 | 24,8 | 13,7 | 10,8 | 17,5 | 66,8 |
|
Net incurrence of liabilities |
-11,7 | 4,8 | 8,2 | -8,6 | -7,3 | -4,3 | 2,7 | 1,6 | 10,0 | 10,0 |
|
Reserve assets |
-5,1 | -1,4 | -2,3 | -1,2 | -10,0 | -6,9 | -1,3 | -3,2 | 7,6 | -3,8 |
The current account surplus in Q4 2024 rose 1.7 times compared to Q3 2024, which mainly resulted from the decrease in the negative contribution of the deficit in the balance of external trade in services and in the balance of investment income.
Main components of the current account, in billions of US dollars
As compared to Q3 2024, the trade balance changed insignificantly to $31.6 billion due to a proportional increase in both exports of goods by $6.6 billion and imports of goods by $5.8 billion.
Trade balance of the Russian Federation, in billions of US dollars
The deficit in the balance on services reduced by $2.5 billion due to the seasonal drop in Russians’ spending during foreign trips, recorded as imports of travel services, and the growth of exports of other services.
Balance on services, in billions of US dollars
The total deficit in balance on primary and secondary income decreased by $2.5 billion compared to Q32024. The reduction of deficit in the balance on investment income played the key role after the peak values of dividend accruals in favor of non-residents in Q3 2024. The deficit in the balance on secondary income increased compared to the Q3 2024, but was several times lower than in Q4 2023, partly due to a decrease in the amounts of other transfers payable.
Balance on financial account rose to $15.2 billion ($6.0 billion).
Net lending by functional categories, in billions of US dollars
Net lending to the rest of the world resulted from the leading growth of external assets compared to external liabilities. The $25.2 billion rise in external assets is largely driven by the growth of other investment, which was, among other things, due to longer lags in foreign trade settlements. Direct investment in the amount of $3.6 billion was positive for the first time since the beginning of the year because of the acquisition of both equity and debt instruments. The decrease of foreign portfolio investment by $2.7 billion was due to the ongoing decline in investment in foreign debt instruments. The revisions to the estimate of key aggregates of the balance of payments result from the data update on direct and other investment.
Net acquisition of financial assets by residents by functional categories, in billions of US dollars
External liabilities rose by $10.0 billion: a significant increase in other investment was caused by a growth in accounts payable. Direct investment recorded in positive value for the first time since the beginning of the year amounted to $1.8 billion. However, the continued withdrawal by foreign investors from portfolio instruments led to a net decrease in liabilities by $2.6 billion.
Net incurrence of liabilities by residents by functional categories, in billions of US dollars
International investment position of the Russian Federation
The growth in net international investment position of the Russian Federation in Q4 2024 (from $940 billion at the beginning of the quarter to $949 billion as of December 31, 2024) was caused by a faster decline in external liabilities compared to external assets.
Foreign assets and liabilities of the Russian Federation, in billions of US dollars
|
|
Assets | Liabilities | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Position as of September 30, 2024 |
Position as of December 31, 2024 |
Position as of September 30, 2024 |
Position as of December 31, 2024 |
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Total |
1 578.0 |
1 546.9 |
637.5 |
598.4 |
|
|
Direct investment |
279.9 |
272.3 |
280.6 |
258.3 |
|
|
Portfolio investment |
50.7 |
49.0 |
134.6 |
118.6 |
|
|
Financial derivatives |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
|
|
Other investment |
613.4 |
616.3 |
221.9 |
221.2 |
|
|
Reserve assets |
633.7 |
609.1 |
|
|
|
External assets of the Russian Federation declined by $31.1 billion to $1,547 billion. Negative revaluation due to, among other things, the weakening of foreign currencies against the US dollar as well as negative values of other changes were the key factors. Assets declined across all functional categories, except other investment. Growth in assets in the form of other investment partly resulted from an increase in non-residents’ debt on foreign trade settlements.
External liabilities of the Russian Federation decreased by $39.2 billion since the beginning of Q4 2024 to $598 billion mainly due to negative revaluation resulting from, among other factors, the weakening of the Russian ruble against the US dollar and other changes related to the restructuring of Russian business. Non-residents’ direct and portfolio investment declined most significantly.
International investment position of the Russian Federation, in billions of US dollars
External debt of the Russian Federation
External debt of the Russian Federation as of December 31, 2024 amounted to $290 billion (13.5% of GDP over the last 12 months), having decreased by $18.8 billion since the end of the Q3 2024.
External debt dynamics were mainly determined by the drop in liabilities to non-residents on sovereign securities, which caused a 36.5% reduction in external liabilities of general government. Other sectors’ liabilities declined by 1.5% mostly as a result of net loan repayment, including those within the framework of direct investment relationship. The external debt of the central bank and banks decreased by 5%.