Estimate of Key Aggregates of the Balance of Payments of the Russian Federation

The essentials:

The Bank of Russia published the first estimate of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation in March 2025 and revised the estimates for January – February 2025 due to the receipt of additional reporting data as of April 11, 2025.

The current account surplus in March 2025 was $10.7 billion against $6.7 billion a month earlier. Its growth was a result of the strengthening of the trade balance surplus.

The current account surplus in Q1 2025 decreased to $19.8 billion from $23.9 billion in the corresponding period of 2024 due to the reduction of the trade balance surplus as well as the expansion of deficit in the balance on primary and secondary income.

Key Aggregates in details in March 2025:

• the trade balance surplus rose by $4.3 billion to $14,8 billion relative to the updated value of February 2025 due to the faster growth in exports of goods compared to imports;
• the deficit in balance on services amounted to $2.5 billion, which is $0.6 billion higher than the revised indicator of February 2025: the key factor was the seasonal growth in Russian residents’ spending abroad recorded in the imports of travel services;
• the total deficit in primary and secondary income declined to $1.5 billion from $1.9 billion a month earlier primarily as a result of a decrease in the amount of accrued income in favor of non-residents;
• external liabilities rose by $0.9 billion (by $0.6 billion in February 2025) mostly due to direct investment;
• external assets (excluding reserve assets) increased by $7.4 billion against $4.7 billion a month earlier due to the growth in other investment.

Key Aggregates in Q1 2025:

• the trade balance surplus declined to $32.5 billion against $34.8 billion a year earlier due to a more significant drop in exports compared to imports. The estimate in February 2025 was lowered, taking into account the received reporting data for exports and imports of goods;
• the deficit in the balance on services in the amount of $7.4 billion remained virtually unchanged compared with the previous year due to a proportional decline in exports and imports of services;
• the total deficit in primary and secondary income amounted to $5.4 billion ($3.5 billion a year earlier);
• the growth of external liabilities of the economy turned positive and amounted to $5.1 billion (-$4.3 billion in the comparable period of 2024) due to a decrease in the net repayment of foreign loans as well as a resumption of growth in direct investment;
• external assets (excluding reserve assets) increased by $18.4 billion ($24.8 billion in Q1 2024): as a year earlier, the main contribution was made by other investment.

Current account components, in billions of US dollars