Estimate of Key Aggregates of the Balance of Payments of the Russian Federation

The essentials:

The Bank of Russia published the first estimate of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation in October 2024 and revised the estimate for Q3 2024 due to the receipt of additional reporting data as of November 13, 2024.

The current account balance in October 2024 amounted to $6.5 billion without changing significantly compared to the revised figure for September 2024.

In January – October 2024, the current account surplus grew to $58.1 billion ($44.2 billion a year earlier). The key driver was an increase in the trade balance surplus with the contribution of other current account components similar to last year.

Key Aggregates in details in October 2024:

• the trade balance surplus declined to $11.8 billion compared to the revised figure in September 2024 primarily due to the more significant drop in exports of goods than in imports;
• the deficit in the balance on services reduced by $0.6 billion to $3.3 billion: this dynamics was influenced by a seasonal drop in Russians’ spendings during foreign trips;
• the total deficit in the balance on primary and secondary income totaled $2.0 billion ($1.9 billion in September 2024);
• foreign assets (excluding reserve assets) grew by $4.6 (by $8.9 billion a month earlier) primarily due to a growth in other investment, among other things, as a consequence of increased lags in settlements for foreign economic activities;
• external liabilities decreased by $0.5 billion after a growth by $3.6 billion a month earlier) due to a reduction in liabilities on other investments and sovereign debt securities;
• reserve assets grew by $1.9 billion (by $0.1 billion a month earlier) as a result of a decline in the limit on swap transactions.

Key Aggregates in January – October 2024:

• the trade balance surplus grew to $115.4 billion against $101.1 billion in January – October 2023 due to the decline in imports with stable exports of goods. The estimate of trade balance in Q3 2024 was increased taking into account the received reporting data from the Federal Customs Service;
• the deficit in the balance on services increased by $4.2 billion to $33.4 billion primarily as a result of the growth in imports of travel services;
• the deficit in the balance on primary and secondary income decreased by $3.7 billion and amounted to $24.0 billion mainly due to a decline in personal transfers payable;
• foreign assets (excluding reserve assets) grew by $54.9 billion (by $38.1 billion a year earlier) due to the growth in other investment;
• the reduction in external liabilities made up $16.8 billion ($3.7 billion in January – October 2023), which was mainly associated with the reduction in liabilities on raised loans, including within the framework of direct investment relationship, as well as on other investment;
• international reserves declined by $9.5 billion (by $8.6 billion a year earlier) mainly as a result of transactions with the funds of the National Wealth Fund and transactions to regulate foreign exchange currency liquidity based on currency swap transactions.