Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia
Survey results: September 2021
(%, Dec to Dec of the previous year)
(% per annum, average for the year)
|CDS spread 5Y in Russia
(b.p., average for the year)
|USD / RUB rate
(RUB per USD, average for the year)
|Neutral key rate
(% per annum)
|5.5||The level of the key rate at which monetary policy keeps inflation and inflation expectations on target over the long term and also keeps GDP at its potential|
|2.0||Expected average potential GDP growth rates in 2024 — 2028|
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 31 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.
- Inflation: in September, the forecast for 2021 was raised to 5.9% from 5.6% in June. In 2022 — 2023, the inflation is close to the Bank of Russia’s target.
- Key Rate: the average key rate is going to stand at 5.7% per annum in 2021 (5.5% in July). Relative to July, the forecast for 2022 rose by 0.3 p.p. to 6.3% per annum. The forecast for 2023 and beyond remained unchanged at 5.5% per annum.
- GDP: the analysts’ forecast for 2021 is substantially improved. Compared to July it has increased by 0.7 p.p. to 4.2%. Thereafter, it remains intact and is forecast to slow down to 2.4% and 2.2% in 2022 — 2023 and 2.0% further on.
- Nominal wages: The expected growth for 2021 is 8.1% (8.0% in July). In
2022-2023,the growth rates are to be 6.5% and 6.0%, respectively (6.8% and 6.1% in May).
- CDS spread: the forecast remains almost the same. The average
5-yearCDS spread for Russia will shrink from 95 bps in 2021 to 90 bps in 2022-2023.
- USD/RUB exchange rate: according to analysts’ forecasts, average exchange rate in
2021-2023fall within the range of 72.4 — 73.8 rubles per USD (72.0 — 73.2 in July).
CDS spread 5Y in Russia
USD / RUB rate
Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The next survey will take place from October 6 to October 12, 2021.
|BCS Global Markets||Morgan Stanley||АКРА||ИНГ Банк Евразия||НИФИ Минфина||Сбербанк ЦМИ||Эксперт РА|
|Credit Suisse||SOVA Capital||Альфа Банк||ИНП РАН||Райффайзенбанк||Сколково-РЭШ||ЮниКредит банк|
|Goldman Sachs||Telegram-канал MMI||Telegram-канал Твердые цифры VTB Capital||Институт Гайдара||Ренессанс Капитал||ФК Открытие||Barclays|
|J.P. Morgan||UBS AG||ДОМ.РФ||ЛОКО-Инвест||Росбанк||ЦМАКП||ИК РЕГИОН|
|Сбербанк КИБ||ФИНАМ||«Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ||Газпромбанк||ПФ Капитал||ВЭБ.РФ|