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Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia

Survey results: December 2021*

  2020
(actual)
2021 2022 2023 2024
CPI
(%, Dec to Dec of the previous year)
4.9 8.2
(7.0)
4.8
(4.2)
4.0
(4.0)
4.0
(4.0)
Key rate
(% per annum, average for the year)
5.1 5.8
(5.7)
7.8
(6.8)
6.3
(5.6)
5.5
(5.5)
GDP
(%, YoY)
-3.0 4.3
(4.3)
2.4
(2.4)
2.0
(2.2)
2.1
(2.1)
Nominal wages
(%, YoY)
7.3 9.3
(8.8)
7.3
(6.8)
6.2
(6.1)
6.0
(6.0)
CDS spread 5Y in Russia
(b.p., average for the year)
109 93
(91)
90
(90)
85
(90)
85
(90)
USD / RUB rate
(RUB per USD, average for the year)
72.3 73.5
(73.5)
72.1
(72.0)
72.4
(73.0)
73.3
(74.2)
Neutral key rate
(% per annum)
5.5
(5.5)
The level of the key rate at which monetary policy keeps inflation and inflation expectations on target over the long term and also keeps GDP at its potential
Long-term GDP
(%, YoY)
2.0
(2.0)
Expected average potential GDP growth rates in 2025 — 2029

*In parentheses are the results of the October 2021 survey.
Survey Dates: 1-7 December, 2021.
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 24 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.

  • Inflation: The consensus forecast for 2021 was raised from 7.0% in October to 8.2% in December, and from 4.2% to 4.8% in 2022, respectively. In 2023-2024, analysts expect inflation stabilize at the Bank of Russia’s target.
  • Key rate: The forecast for 2022 increased by 1 p.p. to 7.8% per annum. The 2023 forecast rose 0.7 p.p. to 6.3%. Further, analysts expect the key rate to average 5.5% per annum.
  • GDP: Compared with October, the forecast for 2021, 2022 and 2024 remained unchanged. The forecast for 2023 decreased by 0.2 p.p.
  • Nominal Wages: Analysts raised the forecast for 2021-2023. In 2021, growth is expected to be 9.3% (8.8% in October). In 2022, the growth rate will be 7.3% (6.8% in October), 6.2% in 2023, and 6.0% in 2024.
  • CDS spread: Analysts adjusted their forecast for the 5-year CDS average for Russia in 2021 from 91 bps in October to 93 bps in December, and lowered their forecast for 2023-2024 to 85 bps.
  • USD/RUB exchange rate: the forecast did not change significantly. On average over the year in 2021-2024, the exchange rate will be in the range of 72.1-73.5 rubles per U.S. dollar.

CPI

%, Dec. to Dec. of the previous year

Key rate

% per annum, average for the year

GDP

%, yoy

Nominal wages

%, yoy




CDS spread 5Y in Russia

b.p., average for the year

USD / RUB rate

RUB per USD, average for the year

* Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The brighter area in the center is the 10 to 90th percentile range.

The next survey will take place from 26 January to 1 February, 2022

Survey participants

BCS Global Markets Morgan Stanley АКРА ИНГ Банк Евразия НИФИ Минфина Сбербанк ЦМИ Эксперт РА
Credit Suisse SOVA Capital Альфа Банк ИНП РАН Райффайзенбанк Сколково-РЭШ ЮниКредит банк
Goldman Sachs Telegram-канал MMI Telegram-канал Твердые цифры VTB Capital Институт Гайдара Ренессанс Капитал ФК Открытие Barclays
J.P. Morgan UBS AG ДОМ.РФ ЛОКО-Инвест Росбанк ЦМАКП ИК РЕГИОН
Сбербанк КИБ ФИНАМ «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ Газпромбанк ПФ Капитал ВЭБ.РФ
Department responsible for publication: Monetary Policy Department
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Last updated on: 09.12.2021