Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia
Survey results: September 2023*
| 2021 (факт) |
2022 (факт) |
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ИПЦ (в % дек. к дек. пред. года) |
8,4 | 11,9 | 6,3 (5,7) |
4,5 (4,3) |
4,0 (4,0) |
4,0 | |
| ИПЦ (% к пред. году, в среднем за год) |
6,7 | 13,8 | 5,6 (5,5) |
5,9 (5,0) |
4,1 (4,0) |
4,0 | |
| Ключевая ставка (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
5,7 | 10,6 | 9,3 (7,9) |
10,0 (7,7) |
7,7 (6,6) |
6,5 | |
| ВВП (%, г/г) |
5,6 | -2,1 | 2,2 (1,5) |
1,5 (1,4) |
1,5 (1,5) |
1,5 | |
| Уровень безработицы (%, дек., без исключения сезонности) |
4,3 | 3,7 | 3,2 (3,4) |
3,4 (3,4) |
3,5 (3,5) |
3,5 | |
| Номинальная заработная плата (%, г/г) |
11,5 | 12,6 | 11,2 (10,0) |
7,8 (7,9) |
6,5 (6,1) |
6,0 | |
| Баланс консолидированного бюджета (% ВВП за соответствующий год) |
0,8 | -1,4 | -2,3 (-2,7) |
-1,6 (-1,8) |
-1,0 (-1,0) |
-1,0 | |
| Экспорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
550 | 639 |
489 (495) |
502 (505) |
515 (508) |
510 | |
| Импорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
380 | 348 | 380 (380) |
391 (395) |
410 (406) |
420 | |
| Курс USD/RUB (руб. за долл., в среднем за год) |
73,7 | 67,4 | 85,5 (81,8) |
89,9 (85,0) |
90,8 (85,0) |
92,0 | |
| Цена на нефть марки Urals (долл. США за баррель, в среднем за год) |
69 | 76 | 61 (57) |
65 (60) |
66 (60) |
65 | |
| Показатели, рассчитанные на основе полученных ответов: | |||||||
| ВВП (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г.= 100) |
100,0 | 97,9 | 100,1 (99,4) |
101,6 (100,8) |
103,1 (102,3) |
104,6 | |
| Реальная заработная плата** (%, г/г) |
4,5 | 0,6 | 5,5 (4,2) |
2,3 (2,3) |
1,9 (1,9) |
1,9 | |
| Реальная заработная плата (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г. = 100) |
100,0 | 100,6 | 106,1 (104,8) |
108,5 (107,2) |
110,6 (109,3) |
112,7 | |
| Торговый баланс (млрд долл. США в год) |
170 | 291 | 109 (115) |
112 (110) |
106 (102) |
90 | |
| Нейтральная ключевая ставка (% годовых) |
Медиана | 6,0 (6,0) |
Уровень ключевой ставки, при котором денежно-кредитная политика поддерживает в долгосрочном периоде инфляцию и инфляционные ожидания на цели и ВВП на потенциальном уровне. | ||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(5,0-7,0) |
||||||
| Долгосрочный рост ВВП (%, г/г) |
Медиана | 1,5 (1,5) |
Ожидаемые средние темпы роста потенциального ВВП на горизонте 2027 — 2031 годов. | ||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(0,8-2,0) |
||||||
* In parentheses are the results of the July 2023 survey.
** The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the nominal wages and average for the year CPI.
Survey Dates: 1 — 5 September, 2023.
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 27 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.
The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for most indicators for the next years (see shaded areas in the charts) for most indicators have widened. The ranges for exchange rate, exports and imports are widened by the end of the forecast period.
- Inflation: The median inflation forecast for 2023 was increased to 6.3% (+0.6 p.p to the July survey), for 2024 — to 4.5% (+0.2 p.p.). Analysts expect inflation to return to the target of the Bank of Russia in 2025 and remain at this level in 2026.
- Key rate: Analysts raised the forecast for key rate path over the entire forecast horizon — to 9.3% per annum (+1.4 p.p.) on average in 2023 (assumes an average key rate of 12.0% per annum in September—December 2023), 10.0% per annum (+2.3 p.p.) on average in 2024 and 7.7% per annum (+1.1 p.p.) on average in 2025. Analysts’ median estimate for the neutral key rate is unchanged at 6.0% per annum.
- GDP: Analysts improved the GDP forecast for 2023 to +2.2% (+0.7 p.p.). The forecasts for the next three years are in line with the July survey — +1.5% annually. According to analysts, the change in GDP in 2026 to 2021 will be +4.6%. The estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate is unchanged at 1.5%.
- Unemployment rate: Analysts lowered the forecast for 2023 by 0.2 p.p. to 3.2%. Further on the forecast horizon the estimates remained unchanged at the
3.4–3.5% range. - Nominal wages: Analysts expect higher growth in 2023, at 11.2% (+1.2 p.p.) with growth slowing to 7.8% (-0.1 p.p.) in 2024 and to 6.5% (+0.4 p.p.) in 2025. The growth forecast for the end of the horizon is +6.0%. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average CPI suggest that real wages will increase by 5.5% in 2023, by 2.3% in 2024 and by 1.9% in 2025 and 2026. Accordingly, by the end of the forecast horizon real wages will be by 12.7% higher than in 2021.
- Consolidated budget balance: Analysts expect a smaller consolidated budget deficit in
2023–2024 — 2.3% of GDP (-0.4 p.p.) and 1.6% of GDP (-0.2 p.p.) respectively. Analysts’ forecasts for the deficit until the end of the horizon are unchanged — 1.0% of GDP. - Exports of goods and services: No significant changes. Forecasts for
2023–2024 are slightly lowered to $489 billion (-$6 billion) and $502 billion (-$3 billion) respectively. In contrast, the forecast for 2025 increased to $515 billion (+$7 billion). Analysts’ forecast for the end of the forecast horizon is $510 billion. This is by 7.3% lower than in 2021. - Imports of goods and services: No significant changes. The import value forecast for 2023 is unchanged, for 2024 — lowered to $391 billion (—$4 billion), for 2025 — increased to $410 billion (+$4 billion). Analysts’ forecast for the end of the forecast horizon is $420 billion. This is by 10.5% higher than in 2021.
- USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts revised the forecast towards a weaker exchange rate over the entire horizon. Analysts’ forecast for 2023 — 85.5 rubles per dollar (assumes an average exchange rate of 94.8 rubles per dollar in September—December 2023), for 2024 — 89.9 rubles per dollar, for 2025 — 90.8 rubles per dollar, for 2026 — 92.0 rubles per dollar (revision by
+4.5–6.8% compared to the July survey). - Urals oil price: higher by $4–6 per barrel over the entire forecast horizon. According to the analysts’ expectations, on average in 2023 Urals oil will cost around $61 per barrel (assumes an average Urals oil price of $70 per barrel in September—December 2023), in 2024 the price will be $65 per barrel and remain on this level until the end of the horizon.
CPI
%, Dec. to Dec. of the previous year
Key rate
% per annum, average for the year, including weekends
GDP
%, yoy
Unemployment rate
%, Dec, not seasonally adjusted
Nominal wages
%, yoy
USD / RUB rate
RUB per USD, average for the year
Exports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Imports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Consolidated budget balance
(% of GDP for the respective year)
Urals oil price
US dollars per barrel, average for the year
* Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The brighter area in the center is the 10 to 90th percentile range.
The next survey will take place from 13 to 17 October, 2023.
Survey participants
| Bloomberg Economics | Газпромбанк | ИНП РАН | Райффайзенбанк | Сбербанк ЦМИ |
| АКРА | ДОМ.РФ | Институт Гайдара | Ренессанс Капитал | Телеграм-канал MMI |
| Альфа Банк | ИБ Синара | ЛОКО-Инвест | Росбанк | Телеграм-канал Твердые цифры |
| Банк ДОМ.РФ | ИК РЕГИОН | НИФИ Минфина | Россельхозбанк | Телеграм-канал Мои инвестиции |
| ВЭБ.РФ | ИНГ Банк Евразия | Промсвязьбанк | Эксперт РА | ФИНАМ |
| ФК Открытие | «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ | ЦМАКП | Сбербанк КИБ | ЮниКредит банк |
Additional materials
Department responsible for publication:
Monetary Policy Department
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Last updated on: 07.09.2023