Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia
Survey results: September 20251
| 2021 (факт) |
2022 (факт) |
2023 (факт) |
2024 (факт) |
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ИПЦ (в % дек. к дек. пред. года) |
8,4 |
11,9 |
7,4 |
9,5 |
6,4 (6,8) |
4,7 (4,7) |
4,2 (4,3) |
4,0 (4,0) |
|
| ИПЦ (% к пред. году, в среднем за год) |
6,7 |
13,8 |
5,9 |
8,4 |
8,9 (9,1) |
5,1 (5,5) |
4,4 (4,3) |
4,1 (4,1) |
|
| Ключевая ставка (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
5,7 |
10,6 |
9,9 |
17,5 |
19,0 (19,3) |
13,2 (13,8) |
10,3 (10,2) |
8,5 (8,5) |
|
| ВВП (%, г/г) |
5,9 |
-1,4 |
4,1 |
4,3 |
1,2 (1,4) |
1,6 (1,6) |
1,9 (1,8) |
2,0 (1,9) |
|
| Уровень безработицы (%, в среднем за год) |
4,8 |
4,0 |
3,2 |
2,5 |
2,3 (2,4) |
2,5 (2,6) |
2,8 (2,8) |
3,0 (3,0) |
|
| Номинальная заработная плата (%, г/г, в среднем за год) |
11,5 |
14,1 |
14,6 |
19,0 | 12,6 (12,5) |
8,0 (8,0) |
6,9 (7,0) |
6,3 (6,7) |
|
| Баланс консолидированного бюджета (% ВВП за соответствующий год) |
0,8 |
-1,4 |
-2,3 |
-1,6 |
-2,4 (-2,2) |
-1,6 (-1,5) |
-1,1 (-1,1) |
-1,0 (-1,0) |
|
| Экспорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
550 |
641 |
465 |
476 |
452 (450) |
458 (455) |
476 (474) |
493 (482) |
|
| Импорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
377 |
347 |
380 |
381 |
384 (381) |
393 (390) |
404 (397) |
412 (407) |
|
| Курс USD/RUB (руб. за долл., в среднем за год) |
73,6 |
67,5 |
84,7 |
92,4 |
85,5 (87,3) |
96,0 (97,5) |
102,6 (101,5) |
105,5 (105,0) |
|
| Цена нефти для налогобложения2 (долл. США за баррель, в среднем за год) |
69 |
76 |
63 |
68 |
58 (58) |
59 (60) |
60 (60) |
62 (60) |
|
| Показатели, рассчитанные на основе полученных ответов: | |||||||||
| Реальная ключевая ставка3 (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
-2,7 |
-1,3 |
2,5 |
8,0 |
12,5 (12,5) |
8,5 (9,0) |
6,0 (5,9) |
4,4 (4,5) |
|
| ВВП (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г.= 100) |
100,0 |
98,6 |
102,6 |
107,1 |
108,3 (108,6) |
110,1 (110,4) |
112,0 (112,3) |
114,7 (114,7) |
|
| Реальная заработная плата4 (%, г/г, в среднем за год) |
4,5 |
0,3 |
8,2 |
9,7 | 3,4 (3,0) |
2,7 (2,6) |
2,1 (2,6) |
1,9 (2,4) |
|
| Реальная заработная плата (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г. = 100) |
100,0 |
100,3 |
108,5 |
119,1 | 123,1 (122,6) |
126,5 (125,6) |
129,3 (128,2) |
132,7 (131,9) |
|
| Торговый баланс (товары и услуги) (млрд долл. США в год) |
173 |
293 |
86 |
95 |
62 (66) |
60 (65) |
68 (72) |
63 (71) |
|
| Нейтральная ключевая ставка (% годовых) |
Медиана | 8,0 (8,0) |
Уровень ключевой ставки, при котором денежно-кредитная политика поддерживает в долгосрочном периоде инфляцию и инфляционные ожидания на цели и ВВП на потенциальном уровне. | ||||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(7,0-9,7) |
||||||||
| Долгосрочный рост ВВП (%, г/г) |
Медиана | 2,0 (1,8) |
Ожидаемые средние темпы роста потенциального ВВП на горизонте 2029 — 2033 годов. | ||||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(1,2-2,3) |
||||||||
1 In parentheses are the results of the July 2025 survey.
2 Russian oil price used for tax purposes and published monthly on the official website of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.
3 The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the key rate (average for the year) and CPI (Dec to Dec).
4 The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the nominal wages and average for the year CPI.
Survey Dates: 29 August – 3 September, 2025.
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 25 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.
The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years (see the shaded areas in the charts) have narrowed for most indicators. At the same time, the ranges for the key rate, GDP, exports, imports, trade balance, USD/RUB exchange rate and oil price are widening by the end of the forecast period.
- Inflation: Analysts have lowered the forecast for 2025 to 6.4% (-0.4 pp to the July survey). Forecasts for 2026 have remained unchanged at 4.7%. The forecast for 2027 has been lowered by 0.1 pp to 4.2%. Analysts expect that inflation in
2027–2028 will be close to the target. - Key rate: Expectations for the average key rate in 2025 and 2026 have been lowered to 19.0% per annum (-0.3 pp, this implies that the key rate will average 16.0% per annum for the remainder of 2025) and 13.2% per annum (-0.6 p.p.) respectively. The forecast for 2027 has been raised by 0.1 p.p. to 10.3% per annum. The forecast for the end of the horizon is 8.5% per annum. It remains higher than the median estimate of the neutral key rate (8.0% per annum). Real key rate calculated based on analysts’ forecasts is 12.5% in 2025, 8.5% (-0.5 pp) in 2026, 6.0% (+0.1 pp) in 2027 and 4.4% (-0.1 pp) in 2028.
- GDP: Growth forecast has been lowered by 0.2 pp to 1.2% for 2025 and has not changed for 2026. Expectations for 2027 and 2028 have increased by 0.1 pp to 1.9% and 2.0% respectively. The median estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate has risen to 2.0% (+0.2 pp). According to analysts, the accumulated GDP growth in 2028 to the 2021 level will total +14.7% (average rate: 2.1% per year).
- Unemployment rate: No significant changes. Analysts expect the average unemployment to decrease to 2.3% (-0.1 pp) in 2025, rise to 2.5% (-0.1 pp) in 2026 and 3.0% in 2028, remaining below 2021 (4.8%) and 2023 (3.2%) values.
- Nominal wages: Analysts have slightly raised their forecast for nominal wage growth in 2025 and lowered it for
2027–2028. They expect nominal wages to grow by 12.6% (+0.1 pp) in 2025, followed by a deceleration to 8.0% in 2026, 6.9% (-0.1 pp) in 2027 and 6.3% (-0.4 pp) by the end of the forecast horizon. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average inflation suggest that real wages will increase by 3.4% in 2025, 2.7% in 2026, 2.1% in 2027 and 1.9% in 2028. By the end of the forecast horizon, real wages will be 32.7% higher than in 2021 (average rate: 4.7% per year). - Consolidated budget balance: Analysts expect slightly higher consolidated budget deficit in
2025–2026: 2.4% of GDP (up by 0.2 pp) in 2025, 1.6% of GDP (up by 0.1 pp) in 2026, 1.1% of GDP in 2027 and 1.0% of GDP in 2028. - Exports of goods and services: Expectations have increased slightly over the entire forecast horizon. The forecast exports are $452 billion (+$2 billion) in 2025, $458 billion (+$3 billion) in 2026 and $476 billion (+$2 billion) in 2027. The forecast for 2028 is $493 billion (+$11 billion). This is 10% ($57 billion) lower than exports in 2021.
- Imports of goods and services: Forecasts have also been increased over the entire forecast horizon: $384 billion (+$3 billion) in 2025, $393 billion (+$3 billion) in 2026 and $404 billion (+$7 billion) in 2027. The forecast for 2028 is $412 billion (+$5 billion). This is 9% ($35 billion) higher than imports in 2021.
- USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts expect a stronger ruble in
2025–2026 and a weaker ruble in the following two years. The forecast of the average exchange rate is 85.5 rubles per dollar in 2025 (this implies that the exchange rate will average 86.4 rubles per dollar in September—December 2025), 96.0 rubles per dollar in 2026, 102.6 rubles per dollar in 2027 and 105.5 rubles per dollar in 2028. The ruble is expected to be1.5–2.1% stronger in2025–2026 and 0.5–1.1% weaker in2027–2028 compared to the July survey. - Oil price for tax purposes: No significant changes. Analysts expect the yearly average price of Russian oil for tax purposes will be $58 per barrel in 2025 (this implies that the oil price will average $56 per barrel for the remainder of 2025), will rise to $59 per barrel in 2026, $60 per barrel in 2027 and $62 per barrel by the end of the forecast period.
CPI
%, Dec. to Dec. of the previous year
Key rate
% per annum, average for the year, including weekends
Real key rate
% per annum, annual average nominal key rate less CPI Dec. to Dec
GDP
%, YoY
GDP
cumulative level, 2021 = 100
Unemployment rate
%, average for the year
Nominal wages
%, YoY, average for the year
Real wages
cumulative level, 2021 = 100
Consolidated budget balance
% of GDP for the respective year
Exports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Imports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Trade balance
billions of US dollars per year
USD / RUB rate
RUB per USD, average for the year
Oil price for tax purposes
US dollars per barrel, average for the year
* Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The brighter area in the center is the 10 to 90th percentile range.
The next survey will be carried out from 10 to 14 October 2025.
Survey participants
| АКРА | Газпромбанк | Институт Гайдара | Сбербанк КИБ | ФИНАМ |
| Астра Управление активами | ДОМ.РФ | НИФИ Минфина | Сбербанк ЦМИ | «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ |
| Альфа Банк | Евразийский Банк Развития (ЕАБР) | Промсвязьбанк | Телеграм-канал Helicopter Macro | ЦМАКП |
| Банк ДОМ.РФ | ИБ Синара | Райффайзенбанк | Телеграм-канал Truevalue | Эксперт РА |
| БКС Мир инвестиций | ИК РЕГИОН | Ренессанс Капитал | Телеграм-канал Твердые цифры | ЮниКредит банк |
| ВТБ | ИНГ Банк Евразия | Росбанк | Т-Инвестиции | |
| ВЭБ.РФ | ИНП РАН | Россельхозбанк | УК «Первая» |
Additional materials
Department responsible for publication:
Monetary Policy Department
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Last updated on: 03.09.2025