Estimated actual external debt repayments of non-financial organisations in 2017 H1

The macroeconomic statistics suggest that total external debt repayments of non-financial organisations in 2017 Q1 and 2017 Q2, including the principal and interest, stand at $20.2 billion and $17.2 billion, respectively.

The updated data suggest that considerable payment volume in 2017 Q1 (including $12.8 billion in March) is formed by liabilities of top-30 Russian borrowers in the foreign market, of which roughly $4.4 billion are intragroup payments and $3.8 billion are scheduled eurobond redemptions by large companies holding sufficient amount of FX liquidity.

Actual debt repayments may total up to $15.2 billion in 2017 Q1 and $13.8 billion in 2017 Q2. The residual amount falls on intragroup payments (as determined for top-30 Russian borrowers in the foreign market), which are usually very likely to be prolonged and refinanced.

The Bank of Russia’s survey among major companies showed that intragroup loans account for the following share of total external debt repayments of large borrowers in the first half of 2017: 24% in January, 14% in February, 38% in March, 32% in April, 28% in May, and 42% in June. Debt repayments of major companies will total $9.8 billion in 2017 Q1 and $6.1 billion in 2017 Q2, adjusted for intragroup financing.

Schedule of external debt repayments of top-30 borrowers (non-financial organisations) in 2017 Q1 and Q2*

Indicators	2017
	January	February	March	April	May	June
Total repayments, million US dollars	1,287	1,896	11,608	3,490	1,534	4,476
Net repayments, million US dollars	977	1,628	7,253	2,385	1,105	2,589
Intragroup financing	24%	14%	38%	32%	28%	42%

* Q1 indicators have been adjusted for the updated transaction certificates issued by authorised banks for FX transactions between residents and non-residents.

26 January 2017