Online Conference

9–10 December 2020.
(Post-)Coronavirus Economy and Challenges to Central Bank Policies

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9 December

Monetary policy transmission in unconventional times

In 2020, the Bank of Russia for the first time in many years moved to an outright accommodative monetary policy stance in order to counter the disinflationary factors triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Is it reasonable to expect that in such unconventional circumstances the monetary policy is up to the task? Details How do restrictive measures imposed to combat the spread of infection influence the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy? To what extent can changes in the key rate alter the long-term rates and monetary conditions at large? How does the shift of savings towards capital markets and cash affect the transmission mechanism? And how is the monetary policy transmission affected by the broader use of subsidized lending and other credit support measures?

Alexey Zabotkin
Deputy Governor of the Bank of Russia
Jacques Miniane
Head of the IMF mission for Russia
Alexander Isakov
Chief economist of VTB Capital
Philip Kartaev
Professor, Moscow State University

Interdependence of politics of AMs and EMs: challenges for central banks in the new decade

In 2020, the global economy has experienced both price and financial stability shocks, which have shown how interconnectedness the financial markets of developed and developing economies are. Responding to these shocks required unprecedented policy action by the fiscal and monetary authorities. How can we assess these actions, their effectiveness and related risks? Details How can the situation develop in the short and medium term, and what will be the challenges for central banks? Which of the measures used in response to the coronavirus crisis should become a standard tool for central banks, in which areas are reforms necessary in order to limit the need for unconventional policies, and what kind of reforms these should be?

Vladimir Mau
Rector of RANEPA (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
Elvira Nabiullina
Governor of the Bank of Russia
Oleg Vyugin
Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Moscow Exchange
Boris Vujčić
Governor of the Croatian National Bank
Alejandro Diaz de Leon
Governor of the Bank of Mexico

Mortgage: how can we avoid inflating the housing bubble?

Mortgage lending is one of the key factors that should contribute to fulfilling the national goal of improving the living conditions of Russians. The growth of mortgages will be driven by historically low interest rates, high-quality loan portfolios of banks and significant opportunities for increasing the number of mortgage borrowers. Details However, it is important to ensure that lending growth is balanced.

Is the residential real estate market overheated?
How will the stimulation of the primary housing market affect the secondary market?
How will the boom in mortgages affect the dynamics of unsecured consumer lending?
What macroprudential measures should the regulator use?

Elizaveta Danilova
Director of the Financial Stability Department of the Bank of Russia
Artem Fedorko
Deputy CEO of JSC “DOM.RF”
Dzhangir Dzhangirov
Senior Vice President, Sber
Nikolai Zhuravlev
Deputy Speaker of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation
Anton Tabakh
Chief economist of rating agency Expert RA

Fine line between supporting businesses and transforming them into zombies

In Russia, many inefficient companies do not quit the market. They become zombie firms instead, with no chance of growing or paying off their debts. The pandemics and massive stimulus programs only accelerated risks of zombie-lending. To which extent do such companies distort market competition by hampering effective redistribution of labour and capital between businesses and sectors? Details And can the problems of a few zombie companies eventually grow into a major macroeconomic issue?
Should the state provide support only to financially viable companies? How can one distinguish between them and zombie companies in real time?

Kirill Tremasov
Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Bank of Russia
Nikolai Kashcheyev
Director of the Analytical Department of PSB
Annette Kyobe
Resident representative of the IMF in Russia
Vladimir Kolychev
Deputy Finance Minister of the Russian Federation
Ryan Banerjee
Senior Economist, Monetary and Economic Department, Bank of International Settlements

Alternative data: how can we use high-frequency data and nowcasting methods to analyze and forecast economic consequences of the coronavirus crisis?

Throughout the coronavirus crisis, the situation has been changing so quickly that the official statistics reflected it with a significant delay. This has generated a strong demand for alternative data necessary to analyze and predict economic dynamics. What alternative data have the regulator and the financial sector used during the coronavirus crisis? Details Which indicators turned out to be the most popular and relevant? What kind of data will be in demand going forward?

Alexander Morozov
Director of the Research and Forecasting Department of the Bank of Russia
Mikhail Matovnikov
Senior operating director, Sber
John N. Friedman
Professor of economics and International and Politics Affairs, Brown University
Polina Kryuchkova
Deputy Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation