In 2020, the Bank of Russia for the first time in many years moved to an outright accommodative monetary policy stance in order to counter the disinflationary factors triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Is it reasonable to expect that in such unconventional circumstances the monetary policy is up to the task? Details How do restrictive measures imposed to combat the spread of infection influence the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy? To what extent can changes in the key rate alter the long-term rates and monetary conditions at large? How does the shift of savings towards capital markets and cash affect the transmission mechanism? And how is the monetary policy transmission affected by the broader use of subsidized lending and other credit support measures?
In 2020, the global economy has experienced both price and financial stability shocks, which have shown how interconnectedness the financial markets of developed and developing economies are. Responding to these shocks required unprecedented policy action by the fiscal and monetary authorities. How can we assess these actions, their effectiveness and related risks? Details How can the situation develop in the short and medium term, and what will be the challenges for central banks? Which of the measures used in response to the coronavirus crisis should become a standard tool for central banks, in which areas are reforms necessary in order to limit the need for unconventional policies, and what kind of reforms these should be?
Mortgage lending is one of the key factors that should contribute to fulfilling the national goal of improving the living conditions of Russians. The growth of mortgages will be driven by historically low interest rates, high-quality loan portfolios of banks and significant opportunities for increasing the number of mortgage borrowers. Details
However, it is important to ensure that lending growth is balanced.
Is the residential real estate market overheated?
How will the stimulation of the primary housing market affect the secondary market?
How will the boom in mortgages affect the dynamics of unsecured consumer lending?
What macroprudential measures should the regulator use?
The pandemic can seriously affect the economic potential and structure of the economy of both individual countries and the world economy. How strong will be this influence? What are the consequences for the labor market, markets for consumer goods, GDP growth rates and inflation dynamics in developed countries and in the EMs from remote work, changes in consumer behavior, and digitalization? Details How and to what extent should central banks take these factors into account in their monetary policy decisions? What challenges are they likely to face, and what risks should they take into account?
In Russia, many inefficient companies do not quit the market. They become zombie firms instead, with no chance of growing or paying off their debts. The pandemics and massive stimulus programs only accelerated risks of zombie-lending. To which extent do such companies distort market competition by hampering effective redistribution of labour and capital between businesses and sectors? Details
And can the problems of a few zombie companies eventually grow into a major macroeconomic issue?
Should the state provide support only to financially viable companies? How can one distinguish between them and zombie companies in real time?
Throughout the coronavirus crisis, the situation has been changing so quickly that the official statistics reflected it with a significant delay. This has generated a strong demand for alternative data necessary to analyze and predict economic dynamics. What alternative data have the regulator and the financial sector used during the coronavirus crisis? Details Which indicators turned out to be the most popular and relevant? What kind of data will be in demand going forward?