Estimated actual external debt repayments of non-financial organisations in 2016 Q3 – Q4

The statistical reading of the total external debt repayments (principal and interest) stands at $17.8 billion in 2016 Q3 and $22.4 billion in 2016 Q4. The Bank of Russia estimates however the actual repayments to total up to $11 billion in 2016 Q3 and $ 21.5 billion in 2016 Q4.

The difference owes its origin to intra-group payments (calculated for 30 Russian top corporate borrowers in the external market), which are very likely to be rolled over and refinanced.

The Bank of Russia-conducted survey of major Russian companies shows that the share of intra-group loans in the total repayments will equal to 25% in July, 3% in August, 70% in September, 0,2% in October, 14% in November and 17% in December 2016.

Adjusted for intra-group financing, major corporate borrowers are projected to enjoy fairly even debt repayments in Q3—Q4, to a total of approximately $2.3 billion a month.

Payment schedule: outstanding external debt repayments (30 major corporate non-financial borrowers, 2016 Q 3-4):*

Indicator	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec
Total outstanding repayments, million USD	3 899	1 890	8 289	1 687	3 061	2 736
Net repayments, million USD	2 921	1 830	2 484	1 684	2 638	2 266
Intra-group financing, %	25	3	70	0	14	17

* Q3 readings are adjusted for updated data based on transaction report forms issued by the authorised banks as part of the procedure for implementing forex transactions between residents and non-residents

19 July 2016