Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia
Survey results: December 2024*
| 2021 (факт) |
2022 (факт) |
2023 (факт) |
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ИПЦ (в % дек. к дек. пред. года) |
8,4 |
11,9 |
7,4 |
9,2 (7,7) |
6,0 (5,3) |
4,5 (4,1) |
4,0 (4,0) |
|
| ИПЦ (% к пред. году, в среднем за год) |
6,7 |
13,8 |
5,9 |
8,4 (8,2) |
8,2 (6,5) |
5,0 (4,6) |
4,2 (4,0) |
|
| Ключевая ставка (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
5,7 |
10,6 |
9,9 |
17,5 (17,3) |
21,3 (18,0) |
14,6 (12,5) |
10,4 (9,0) |
|
| ВВП (%, г/г) |
5,9 |
-1,2 |
3,6 |
3,8 (3,7) |
1,5 (1,8) |
1,7 (1,9) |
1,9 (1,9) |
|
| Уровень безработицы (%, дек., без исключения сезонности) |
4,3 |
3,6 |
3,0 |
2,4 (2,5) |
2,6 (2,7) |
2,8 (2,9) |
3,0 (3,0) |
|
| Номинальная заработная плата (%, г/г) |
11,5 |
14,1 |
14,6 |
17,5 (17,2) |
11,6 (10,4) |
7,6 (7,6) |
7,1 (6,5) |
|
| Баланс консолидированного бюджета (% ВВП за соответствующий год) |
0,8 |
-1,4 |
-2,3 |
-1,7 (-1,7) |
-1,1 (-1,1) |
-1,0 (-1,0) |
-1,0 (-1,0) |
|
| Экспорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
550 |
641 |
466 |
468 (470) |
475 (475) |
480 (485) |
482 (493) |
|
| Импорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
377 |
347 |
379 |
371 (370) |
382 (382) |
395 (396) |
401 (403) |
|
| Курс USD/RUB (руб. за долл., в среднем за год) |
73,6 |
67,5 |
84,7 |
92,6 (91,2) |
102,0 (95,0) |
104,0 (97,5) |
106,6 (99,7) |
|
| Цена на нефть марки Brent (долл. США за баррель, в среднем за год) |
71 |
99 |
82 |
80 (81) |
75 (77) |
75 (75) |
72 (72) |
|
| Показатели, рассчитанные на основе полученных ответов: | ||||||||
| ВВП (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г.= 100) |
100,0 |
98,8 |
102,4 |
106,2 (106,1) |
107,8 (108,0) |
109,8 (110,0) |
111,7 (112,2) |
|
| Реальная заработная плата** (%, г/г) |
4,5 |
0,3 |
8,2 |
8,4 (8,3) |
3,1 (3,9) |
2,7 (2,8) |
2,9 (2,3) |
|
| Реальная заработная плата (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г. = 100) |
100,0 |
100,3 |
108,5 |
117,6 (117,6) |
121,3 (122,0) |
124,7 (125,8) |
128,3 (127,9) |
|
| Торговый баланс (млрд долл. США в год) |
173 |
293 |
86 |
97 (99) |
90 (92) |
94 (87) |
90 (84) |
|
| Нейтральная ключевая ставка (% годовых) |
Медиана | 8,0 (8,0) |
Уровень ключевой ставки, при котором денежно-кредитная политика поддерживает в долгосрочном периоде инфляцию и инфляционные ожидания на цели и ВВП на потенциальном уровне. | |||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(6,0-9,0) |
|||||||
| Долгосрочный рост ВВП (%, г/г) |
Медиана | 1,8 (1,8) |
Ожидаемые средние темпы роста потенциального ВВП на горизонте 2028 — 2032 годов. | |||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(1,2-2,5) |
|||||||
* In parentheses are the results of the October 2024 survey.
** The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the nominal wages and average for the year CPI.
Survey Dates: 6 – 10 December, 2024.
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 32 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.
The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years (see the shaded areas in the charts) have narrowed for most indicators. At the same time, the ranges for GDP growth, unemployment rate, USD/RUB exchange rate, exports, imports, Brent oil price are widening by the end of the forecast period.
- Inflation: Inflation forecast has been raised to 9.2% in 2024 (+1.5 pp compared to the October survey), to 6.0% in 2025 (+0.7 pp) and to 4.5% in 2026 (+0.4 pp). Analysts expect that inflation will return to the target in 2027.
- Key rate: Analysts have raised the average key rate forecast over the entire forecast horizon. The median forecast for 2024 is 17.5% per annum (+0.2 pp). It implies that the average key rate in December 2024 will amount to 21.5% per annum. Analysts forecast that the key rate will average 21.3% per annum (+3.3 pp) in 2025, 14.6% per annum (+2.1 pp) in 2026. The forecast for the end of the horizon (10.4% per annum, +1.4 pp) is higher than the median estimate of the neutral key rate (8.0% per annum).
- GDP: Forecast for 2024 has been raised to 3.8% (+0.1 pp). Forecasts for
2025–2026 has been lowered to 1.5% (-0.3 pp) and 1.7% (-0.2 pp) respectively, the forecast for the end of the horizon has remained unchanged at 1.9%. The median estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate has also remained unchanged at 1.8%. According to analysts, the GDP growth in 2027 to the 2021 level will total +11.7% (+12.2%, according to the October survey). - Unemployment rate: Analysts have somewhat lowered their forecast for
2024–2026 (by 0.1 pp). They expect that unemployment will decline to 2.4% in 2024, increase to 2.6% in 2025, to 2.8% in 2026 and then return to the 2023 level of 3.0% by the end of the forecast horizon. - Nominal wages: Analysts have once again raised their forecast for nominal wage growth. They expect nominal wages to grow by 17.5% (+0.3 pp) in 2024, followed by a deceleration to 11.6% (+1.2 pp) in 2025, to 7.6% in 2026 and to 7.1% (+0.6 pp) by the end of the forecast horizon. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average CPI suggest that real wages will increase by 8.4% in 2024, by 3.1% in 2025, by 2.7% in 2026 and by 2.9% in 2027. Accordingly, by the end of the forecast horizon, real wages will be 28.3% higher than in 2021 (27.9% higher, according to the October survey).
- Consolidated budget balance: Analysts have not changed consolidated budget deficit forecasts over the entire horizon compared to the October survey: 1.7% of GDP in 2024, followed by a decline to 1.1% of GDP in 2025 and to 1.0% of GDP in
2026–2027. - Exports of goods and services: Analysts have slightly lowered their forecast: $468 billion (-$2 billion) in 2024, $475 billion in 2025, $480 billion (-$5 billion) in 2026. The estimate for 2027 is $482 billion (-$11 billion), which is 12% ($68 billion) lower than exports in 2021.
- Imports of goods and services: Forecasts have also seen no significant changes: $371 billion (+$1 billion) in 2024, $382 billion in 2025, $395 billion (-$1 billion) for 2026. The estimate for the end of the forecast horizon is $401 billion (-$2 billion), which is 6% ($24 billion) higher than imports in 2021.
- USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts’ forecast for 2024 is 92.6 rubles per dollar (it implies that the average exchange rate in December 2024 will amount to 103.0 rubles per dollar), 102.0 rubles per dollar for 2025, 104.0 rubles per dollar for 2026 and 106.6 rubles per dollar for 2027 (the ruble in
2025–2027 is 6.6-7.4% weaker compared to the October survey). - Brent oil price: No significant changes. According to their expectations, the average Brent oil price will total $80 per barrel in 2024 (it implies that the average price in December 2024 will amount to 75 rubles per barrel). The price will then decrease to $75 per barrel in
2025–2026 and to $72 per barrel in 2027.
CPI
%, Dec. to Dec. of the previous year
Key rate
% per annum, average for the year, including weekends
GDP
%, yoy
GDP
(cumulative level, 2021 = 100)
Unemployment rate
%, Dec, not seasonally adjusted
Nominal wages
%, yoy
Real wages
(cumulative level, 2021 = 100)
Consolidated budget balance
% of GDP for the respective year
Exports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Imports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Trade balance
(billions of US dollars per year)
USD / RUB rate
RUB per USD, average for the year
Brent oil price
US dollars per barrel, average for the year
* Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The brighter area in the center is the 10 to 90th percentile range.
The next survey will be carried out from 31 January to 4 February 2025.
Survey participants
| Bloomberg Economics | ВЭБ.РФ | ИНП РАН | Россельхозбанк | УК «Первая» |
| АКРА | Газпромбанк | Институт Гайдара | Сбербанк КИБ | ФИНАМ |
| Астра Управление активами | ДОМ.РФ | НИФИ Минфина | Сбербанк ЦМИ | «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ |
| Альфа Банк | Евразийский Банк Развития (ЕАБР) | Промсвязьбанк | Телеграм-канал Helicopter Macro | ЦМАКП |
| Банк ДОМ.РФ | ИБ Синара | Райффайзенбанк | Телеграм-канал Truevalue | Эксперт РА |
| БКС Мир инвестиций | ИК РЕГИОН | Ренессанс Капитал | Телеграм-канал Твердые цифры | ЮниКредит банк |
| ВТБ | ИНГ Банк Евразия | Росбанк | Т-Инвестиции |
Additional materials
Department responsible for publication:
Monetary Policy Department
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Last updated on: 11.12.2024