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651
28.03.2023
dramatic changes in the ruble exchange rate. One of them is the Russian rouble crisis of mid-December 2014: the exchange rate of the national currency
4.8% against the euro and yuan, respectively
(monthly average exchange rate). Overall, exchange rates rose by 19.6%, 26.3% and 26.1%,
respectively,
successful stabilisation of the macroeconomic situation with low inflation and a floating
exchange rate has ensured a progressive dedollarisation of the Russian economy since 2014.
the anchored forecast.
A foreign exchange rate and target model outperforms a foreign exchange rate model. A
foreign exchange rate, target, and common factor model
unfriendly countries. The exchange rate was supported by the
end-of-month tax period and fiscal rule-based sales of foreign currency.16
The exchange rate volatility of
since last April. Surveyed enterprises complained about a stronger
negative effect of exchange rate movements on their operation. Retailers increased their price
expectations in February.
acceleration.
The exchange rate, which played a disinflationary role in H2 2022, may become a pro-
inflationary factor this year. The current exchange rate level
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17.03.2023
is associated with the fact that these prices are less sensitive to exchange rate movements and one-off factors in certain markets and are revised less
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17.03.2023
can further weaken demand for Russian exports, contributing to inflation growth through exchange rate movements. Moreover, the increasing complexity of production and supply chains and