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31.12.2020
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* Actual amount of operations may deviate from planned due to the exchange rate differences and numbers rounding.
Definitions
Liquidity Factors
exchange rate developments in Russia.
We estimate the model empirically and show that the reaction of households to exchange
rate appreciation weakens when exchange rate
in retail
PMI Manufacturing output prices
PMI Services input prices who named exchange rate fluctuations as a
PMI Services output prices
PMI average reason for
Inflation targeting Active inflation Liquidity Transition deadline Key rate Floating exchange
announced targeting management set introduced rate introduced Dec 2018 Dec 2019 Nov 2020
communications
2020
Nominal effective exchange rate* (rhs)
Services Inflation target
Goods weakly depending on exchange rate moves
Goods significantly depending on exchange rate moves
Sources: Rosstat,
Pt *St ,
where the projected exchange rate tgov is used instead of the actual exchange rate t . The
projected exchange rate is assumed to be
calculations
4
Global financial and commodity markets (2)
CDS of EMEs Ruble exchange rate (USD/RUB) and Urals
A more positive sentiment in (change on
EMES Table 3
Change in indicators in August-October 2020 Values of indicator
Exchange rate
5-year 10-year 5-year
of the national 10-year government
Country Stock index