Lending speeds up in all segments in 2023 Q3 but may slow down at year-end
Corporate lending grew by 5.9% in 2023 Q3 (+3.8% over 2023 Q2). The key factors were elevated demand for loans from vendors under state contracts, the substitution of external debts, and larger housing construction volumes.
Retail lending continued to speed up. The mortgage portfolio expanded by record-setting 10.8% compared to 7% in 2023 Q2. Consumer lending went up by 5.9% vs 4.5%. However, we expect lending to cool down in 2023 Q4, as down payments under subsidised mortgages have been raised to 20%, the macroprudential regulation of both risky mortgages and consumer loans has been tightened, and interest rates have grown significantly.
After the outflow in 2023 Q2 (-1.4%), corporate funds were up by 5.2% mainly due to exporters amid rising energy prices. Households’ funds, however, were growing at a slower pace because of seasonal factors (+2.9% vs +5%).
In 2023 Q3, the banking sector earned about ₽1 trillion vs ₽0.8 trillion in 2023 Q2. The drivers were active growth in lending and expanding interest margins despite higher interest rates. Over the first nine months, the sector earned ₽2.7 trillion. By the end of 2023, its profit may total approximately ₽3.3 trillion. Nevertheless, the total income will be lower because of the negative revaluation of securities included directly in capital rather than in profit (₽0.4 trillion over the past ten months of 2023).
More details are available in the quarterly review Banking Sector.