Bank of Russia estimates actual external debt payments in 2017 H1

Estimated foreign debt payments of Russian non-financial institutions in the second half of 2017 are essentially consistent with last year’s figures. According to a BoR estimate, posted on the BoR website, these payments are set to total $12 billion In 2017 Q3 and $23.6 billion In 2017 Q4

Estimated amounts of external debt payments may differ from macroeconomic statistical data in the sum of intragroup payments, which tend to be prolonged or refinanced in many cases.

According to statistical data, total external debt payments of non-financial institutions including principal and interest will amount to $16 billion in Q3 and $25 billion in 2017 Q4. Macrostatistics show that a fourth quarter (mainly December) is traditionally the time for the bulk of repayments, and experience suggests that a substantial proportion of these will be extended.

According to a BoR survey of major companies, the share of intragroup loans in total repayments of major borrowers is estimated at 46% for July, 16% for August, 60% for September, 0.2% for October, 29% for November and 26% for December 2017.

Adjusted for intragroup funding, major corporations’ payments in 2017 Q3-4 are predicted to be fairly even and average about $1.5 billion a month, which is a third less than in the same period last year.