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In the Monetary Policy Guidelines, the Bank of Russia each year describes the goals of monetary policy and approaches to its implementation and provides its view of the current situation in the economy and forecasts of its development in the medium term.

In 2025, the Russian economy has continued to grow, albeit at a more moderate pace than over the previous years. Investment activity remains high, including owing to government support in priority sectors. The expansion of demand is increasingly consistent with the economy’s capacities to ramp up output. Inflation has been slowing down. This has become possible as a result of tight monetary policy.

In the future, the economy will return to a balanced and sustainable growth path and inflation will stabilise at the target.

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Additional materials

Boxes

1. The level of the inflation target in Russia.

2. Benefits of a floating exchange rate.

3. Model-based approaches and their evolution.

4. Interaction of monetary and fiscal policies.

5. Monetary policy and financial sector stability.

6. Inflation in Russian regions.

7. Monitoring of businesses for the purposes of monetary policy.

8. Changes in banking regulation over 2023–2025 and their effect on monetary policy.

9. Fiscal policy in 2025–2028 under the baseline scenario and its impact on the economy.

10. The concept of a long-term economic equilibrium and deviations of key macroeconomic variables from it.

11. Subsidised lending and its impact on the transmission mechanism.

12. Transfer curve and formation of interest rates on banking operations.

13. Companies’ interest expenses and the cost channel.

Appendices

1. Monetary policy transmission mechanism in Russia.

2. Inflation measures used by the Bank of Russia.

3. Quantitative analysis of reasons for the inflation deviation from the target and decomposition of GDP dynamics into shocks.

4. One-off supply-side inflation factors.

5. Economic agents’ inflation expectations.

6. The Bank of Russia’s communication on monetary policy issues.

7. Neutral interest rate and its estimate.

8. Financial market development.

9. Monetary programme.

Department responsible for publication: Monetary Policy Department
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Last updated on: 26.09.2025