Summary of the Key Rate Discussion released
The publication covers the main aspects of the discussion about the economic situation and inflation, monetary and external conditions, and alternatives to the key rate decision.
The discussants noted that current inflationary pressures had been easing at the beginning of the year, while remaining high. The expansion of lending decelerated, whereas household deposits were actively growing. Domestic demand was increasing at a slower rate. There were signs of a reduction in labour shortages. This could indicate a decrease in the degree of overheating in the economy, which helps slow down inflation. More time is needed to make sure that the trends observed are sustainable.
Following the discussion, on 21 March 2025, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to keep the key rate at 21.00% per annum.
A further key rate increase in the near future has become less likely. However, this step will be considered if the speed and sustainability of disinflation are not sufficient to bring the inflation rate back to 4% in 2026.