Bank of Russia estimates actual external debt payments in 2019 Q4 – 2020 Q1

Russian non-financial organisations’ net external debt payments are estimated to total $16.5 billion in 2019 Q4 and $11.4 billion in 2020 Q1, according to a Bank of Russia estimate published on the regulator’s website.

The estimated amounts of actual external debt payments differ from the available macroeconomic statistical data by the amount of intragroup payments calculated for the top 40 Russian corporate borrowers in the external market. Such payments tend to be prolonged or refinanced.

According to macrostatistical data, total external debt payments of non-financial institutions, including principal and interest, will in 2019 Q4 and 2020 Q1 total $19.1 and $11.4 billion respectively.

Macroeconomic statistics show that a considerable amount of payments traditionally falls on December ($11.8 billion); however, in practice, a sizeable amount of such payments tends to be carried over or restructured.

The Bank of Russia’s survey of top companies shows that in 2019 the share of intragroup borrowings in major borrowers’ total external debt payments is as follows: 0% – October, 8% – November, 63% – December; in 2020: 0% – January, February and March.

Adjusted for intragroup payments, major companies’ payments in 2019 Q4 will be 17% lower than in 2018 Q4, while 2020 Q1 payments are expected to be 16% higher than in 2019 Q1.