Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Ramis Khabibullin
Author-Email: KhabibullinRA@cbr.ru
Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia, Russian Federation



Title: What measures of real economic activity slack are helpful for forecasting Russian inflation? 

Abstract: This paper investigates inflation forecasting accuracy of several real activity slack measures
for the Russian economy. Several Bayesian unobservable-components models using several
real activity variables were considered. I show that real-activity slacks gain no improvement in
Russian inflation forecasting. This is true for the monthly and for the quarterly data. The
estimation was made in the period from the beginning of 2003 to the end of 2018 for monthly
data and from the beginning of 1999 to the end of 2018 for the quarterly data. Moreover, their
real-times estimates are unreliable in the sense of the magnitude of their revisions.


Length: 38 pages
Creation-Date: 2019-10
Revision-Date:
Publication-Status:
File-URL: http://cbr.ru/Content/Document/File/87578/wp-50_e.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function:
Number:wps50
Classification-JEL: C32, C53, E31, E32, E37
Keywords:  Phillips curve, factor model, unobserved components model, output gap, real activity slack, Bayesian estimation
Handle:RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps50