Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0

Author-Name: Vadim Grishchenko

Author-Email: grishchenkovo@cbr.ru

Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia, Russian Federation


Author-Name: Alexey Ponomarenko

Author-Email: ponomarenkoaa@cbr.ru

Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia, Russian Federation


Author-Name: Sergey Seleznev

Author-Email: SeleznevSM@cbr.ru

Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia, Russian Federation



Title: A Feasible Approach to Projecting Household Demand
For The Digital Ruble in Russia




Abstract: We estimated a model of households’ usage of alternative payment instruments (cash and
bank cards) using a new dataset from a survey of Russian households. In our modelling set-up,
households’ preferences are determined by the instruments’ perceived attributes and hence their
choice regarding payment methods depends on the differences across instruments in these attributes. The results indicate a statistically significant sensitivity of consumer choice to the perceived
attributes. We employ the estimated model to evaluate the demand for CBDC depending on its
expected design and consumers’ perception of it. We discuss several illustrative projections to
demonstrate the application of the tool developed. The predicted utilisation of CBDC varies considerably depending on the attributes hypothesised, although under the conservative assumptions,
the projected use of CBDC in household transactions is limited.


Length: 41 pages

Creation-Date: 2023-02

Revision-Date:

Publication-Status:

File-URL: https://cbr.ru/StaticHtml/File/144906/wp_108.pdf 

File-Format: Application/pdf

File-Function:

Number:wps108

Classification-JEL:  E42, E47, E50, E58.

Keywords: : Central Bank Digital Currency, Digital Ruble, payment instruments, ordered probit,
banknotes, bank cards, Russia

Handle:RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps108