Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0

Author-Name: Alexey Ponomarenko
Author-Email: PonomarenkoAA@cbr.ru
Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia, Russian Federation



Title: Money stock composition and inflation risks

Abstract: Revaluation of ruble value of foreign currency deposits and use of the Reserve
Fund to finance budget deficit resulted in fast growth of broad money supply.
The related inflation risks are currently moderate given that the money stock
components with the fastest growth rates are not closely related to the aggregate
demand. Nevertheless, inflation risks may increase in future if demand for liquid
components of money supply grows and the composition of M2Y monetary aggregate
returns to its 2011-2013 average values. We estimate that in this case the annual
growth of household expenditures on final consumption may go up by 1.5 pp
within two years, which may have negative inflation spillovers in 2017-2018.

Length: 5 pages
Creation-Date: 2016-05
Revision-Date:
Publication-Status:
File-URL: http://www.cbr.ru/Content/Document/File/87598/analytic_note_3_e.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function:
Number: note3
Classification-JEL: 
Keywords: 
Handle:RePEc:bkr:wpaper:note3