Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Igor Savchenko
Author-Email: yok@inbox.ru
Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia
Author-Name: Marya Butakova
Author-Email: marya-kvaktun@yandex.ru
Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia
Author-Name: Leonid Markov
Author-Email: leomarkov@mail.ru
Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia
Author-Name: Margarita Lyakhnova
Author-Email: m.liakhnova@alumni.nsu.ru
Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia
Author-Name: Olga Erushina
Author-Email: erushina_o@mail.ru
Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia
Author-Name: Roman Gartvich
Author-Email: gartvich.roma@mail.ru
Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia
Author-Name: Maxim Yakovina
Author-Email: maksim_yakovina@mail.ru
Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia
Author-Name: Vasilii Shcherbakov
Author-Email: shcherbakovvs@mail.ru
Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia
Title: Quarterly Projection Model for the Siberian Macroregion
Abstract: Russia's regions are characterised by strong heterogeneity of economic conditions, and, accordingly, the regions' reaction to macroeconomic shocks throughout the country, including shocks of the single monetary policy, may be heterogeneous. This paper is devoted to the development of a tool to analyse the economy of the Siberian macroregion, a semistructural model consisting of three blocks: Siberia, the rest of Russia, and the outside world. The main difference between this model and an all-Russian model lies in the different Phillips and aggregate demand curves for Siberia and the rest of Russia. The model takes into account the specifics of Siberia, including the small contribution of the region to the main macroeconomic indicators for Russia, the high share of extractive industries in output, and others. It is shown that the model describes ongoing processes in accordance with economic intuition, which allows it to be used for medium-term forecasting and analysis.
Classification-JEL: E31, E32, E37, E52
Keywords: semi-structural model, forecast, Siberian macroregion, output gap, Phillips curve, impulse response functions, monetary policy
Journal: Russian Journal of Money and Finance
Pages: 48-75
Volume: 83
Issue: 4
Year: 2024
Month: December
DOI: 
File-URL: https://rjmf.econs.online/upload/iblock/dea/uupwt8m6tnc3s0nop51qbnc6usncxwa1/Quarterly-Projection-Model-for-the-Siberian-Macroregion.pdf
Handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:83:y:2024:i:4:p:48-75