Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Matvey Finagin
Author-Email: matfinagin@yandex.ru
Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia; HSE University
Author-Name: Sergey Sheremeta
Author-Email: sheremetasv@mail.cbr.ru
Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia
Title: Forecasting Non-Oil and Gas Revenues in the Russian Budget
Abstract: This paper examines methods for forecasting non-oil and gas revenues in Russia's budget system in order to construct a model with the smallest forecast error in conditions of the incomplete availability of the necessary data. We use mixed data, error correction, and autoregressive distributed lag models to forecast non-oil and gas revenues at different levels of aggregation: non-oil and gas revenues minus one-time receipts; cross-border and domestic duties; and eight groups of major taxes. The quality of the models is estimated using the root mean square errors of a pseudo out-of-sample forecasts on one- and three-year horizons. The forecasts of the models constructed turn out to be more accurate than the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance of Russia for most forecast periods.
Classification-JEL: E62, E64, E65, E66
Keywords: budget revenue forecast, non-oil and gas revenues, taxes
Journal: Russian Journal of Money and Finance
Pages: 76-97
Volume: 83
Issue: 4
Year: 2024
Month: December
DOI: 
File-URL: https://rjmf.econs.online/upload/iblock/9de/p2pbebrzvioc9zk6xl02nv03zqb0po9n/Forecasting-Non-Oil-Gas-Revenues-in-the-Russian-Budget.pdf
Handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:83:y:2024:i:4:p:76-97